to check for favored timeframes for the market to begin a directional move. I only had time to check the last 9 years but that's enough to determine a possible % predictability for a directional move. You are correct that the hogs tend work the top side of rallies until the 2nd week in March(the 8th & 9th) are the days of preference for the plug being pulled to begin the March Washout. I only referenced the April contract but I would have to assume the June contract would paint a similar picture. April hogs have been in a 2 1/2 month rally, so the setup is there and ripe for at least a $4 correction for 3-5 weeks. Last year was a 3 week, $11 correction for April hogs, this year may not be as hard but I do expect the weekly chart gap to be filled and the 9 week moving average @ 65.77 is coming up off of the Nov/Dec overkill lows to provide technical support 2 the 66 area.

The few times that the market did not have a March Washout was when the market was kept beat down at a bottom basing area. 2014 was one of those Blue Moon/Black Swan events where the market traded sideways in a $3 range for 2 months, then April became front month and exploded with the PED threat that had been in the picture for 2 months. We currently have a 3 1/2 month $20 rally off the mid Nov lows @ 51.80. The hog market is in an uptrend as we are nearing the positive seasonal cycle but the hog market can have a 5-7 dollar correction and do no damage to the uptrend. Now that the northbound is becoming very popular, the 5-7 dollar correction becomes more achievable with many weak long stops to blow. A consistent 3-4 month swing cycle low always seems to cycle through in the March time frame, which is why there is such an addiction for the March Washout. Whether it is $5, $7, or $10 is irrelevant. I may only last a week or two but most corrections take 3 weeks to complete and with the gap at 66.10, makes the $5 correction more of a temptation. Of course gaps don't have to be filled but the preference is to fill them, the sooner the better tends to tell me the market is in a hurry to go higher. If it leaves it open too long it tells me when it fills it in the next seasonal down cycle 6-8 months later, it won't stop it but crash right through the expected fill the gap support. Gaps are a tough read because so much depends on why that gap is there.