Oct and Dec hedges is a tough question to have a convicted answer unless one has that elusive crystal ball. I do have an opinion but I have no idea how close to correct I am. A short term sell is probably close to correct at the 69.00 area but I would rather use my ammo on the nearby months since there is more bang for your buck with higher OI which gives greater volatility. I always tell my hedgers to focus on what you can see 2-3 months down the road. A lot of things can change in 3 months, especially with the seasonal 15-20 dollar upside pop is only 6-8 weeks away. Even if it only lasts until mid to late May, Oct and Dec hogs should benefit some from the seasonal price increase, even if we get an expected and needed setback to validate the 66-67 support area in the coming weeks. Of course there have been a few years where the seasonal price increase hasn't shown up but I prefer to go with the better odds. One thing that is an addiction I feel tends to show up year after year, is the copy cat effect between April hogs and Oct hogs. They tend to play the same trading range to a certain degree. April hogs have congestion lows at the 61.00 area and congestion highs @ 71.00, the typical addiction $10 range with some over kill at the bottom as well as the top. I believe Oct hogs have a chance to climb to the same topping area of 71-72 as April has done, of course we are still waiting for "The Rest of the Story" for April hogs. If the summer months go to my 82-84 target in the next few months, Oct has a good chance to stay within a 12-15 dollar deficit of the seasonal highs, which gives them a chance at matching the topside of April to once again play the copy cat game.

April 1st the farmers will be in the field, weather permitting.