On average, from this date until the JJJs expire, the index has lost -4.74. The huge drop of -25.17 in 2014 was a big factor in producing this high average. If that data point is eliminated, the drop is only -1.34. The maximum gain was 5.57 in 2015. This year's pattern may more closely follow 2012 when the index gained 5.04.

A minute ago traders were betting that the component would only tack on 2.48 by the time we see the JJJs go to cash settlement. I think shortly traders will come to their senses and realize that the component will most like jump more than that so I bought a JJJ at 69.65. That probably flies in the face of ITZ's fishing lines but a 'fella has to do what a 'fella has to do when the system says "Pull the trigger".

I'm not married to that trade and will either accept a small loss or quickly head to the bank with some cash to deposit.

This I know: it is not at all unusual for the "Big Dogs" to drive the futures "Limit" in the direction opposite of my read on the fundamental at some point during the time period leading up to expiration. That makes ITZ's 68.00 target look very doable.

Best wishes,

dhm