2/26/16 was down -$0.28 and the model projects that the component on the 2/26/16 kill will be in the range of -0.10 to +0.20.

That's now much change but it may be enough to tempt the JJJs to head a bit lower this morning.

Packers made a solid purchase Friday at 111.4% of the moving average daily purchases.

The JJJs are trading premium to the component by 4.15. The most the index has gained from this time until the JJJs expire in the last six-year was 4.91 in 2012. On average during that six-year period the index has lost -5.62 strongly driven by the -28.20 decline in 2014. If that drop in taken out, the average decline has been -1.85. For some reason this year traders are thinking the Index is headed up and it might be if the lower kill rate suggested by the last H&P report becomes reality. Even so, there is some evidence to suggest that we are producing a lot of red meat and poultry.

I'm long one JJJ and think I am willing to part company wit it and wait for the market to declare where it is headed.

Best wishes,

dhm

PS: I like the new trading hours!!

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