2/25/16 was up +0.20 to 66.50. The JJJs are trading premium to the component by 3.72. On average over the past six-years from this date until the JJJs expire the index has dropped -6.00 driven strongly by the big drop of 2014. If that drop is removed, the average drop becomes -1.92.

That still points out the "Usual" weakness in the index at this time of the year.

But the index is not always weak.

In 2012 the index posted a 5.32 point gain.

This seems to point out the uncertain volatility is hog prices this time of the year. Historically from January to June the index tends to climb but it is a very bumpy climb making the JJJs a traders dream and a hedgers nightmare.

I am currently long the JJJs looking for a mild "Pop" to take a quick profit. So far today I have banked a little scalping profit. Nothing is happening with the spreads that does me any good (or harm either).

The six-day moving average was up mildly to 213.31#. That is -1.58# yr/yr. Index hogs are lighter at 212.53#. I keep watching these weights looking for a clue relative to the supply of market ready hogs. That data continues to keep me alert to the possibility that the number of hogs reported in the last H&P report may have been mildly overstated or if not over-stated at least the lower kill numbers are arriving sooner than would be expected from the report.

With the amount of meat and poultry available, lower hog kill numbers will not necessarily mean a wildly bullish hog market but it could head-off or dampen the drop in the index that historically occurs this time of the year.

Best wishes,

dhm