2/25/16 was up +$0.22 and the model projects that the component on the 2/25/16 kill will be up between +0.05 and +0.35. We should have the actual number around 11:30 after the 201 report is released, assuming it is released on time. These mildly higher bids did not result in firm purchase numbers for the packers. In actuality they were only able to purchase 82.0% of the moving average daily purchases.

It is not clear whether the modest number of hogs purchased was the result of modest numbers of market ready hogs available or whether producers were holding out for high prices. My bias is that numbers are not there. This bias is based merely on the declining 6-day moving average carcass weights.

The kill was so low yesterday that I'm suspecting some plant was having a problem of some variety that stopped their chains from running. It is a very different story if packers were having trouble finding hogs. I'm waiting to render judgement on that prospect until the data makes it more clear.

I just added a second long JJJ future on the early morning dip. I will buy again if we get down to the 70 level.

Best wishes,

dhm