2/19/16 was up +$0.07 and the model projects that the component on the Friday/Saturday kill will be between unchanged and up +0.30. It appears that packers still have enough hogs purchased at a mildly higher price to keep the component from falling today.

Even though packers were bidding essentially unchanged, they did get a very solid purchase at 116.5% of the moving average daily purchases. The weekend purchases are often large and this weekend was not exception. It does appear that producers' inventories are ample and they are willing sellers of their hogs. With cutouts dribbling lower last week, it is doubtful that packers will put much on their bids just having made such a solid purchase over the weekend. With Easter being early and the slack demand that often comes with Lent, I don't look for the CME Index to to show much of a gain this week.

On Friday I was able to cover a couple of the short J/K spreads and will put them back on if they bounce or can kick a couple more off if there is more weakness in store.

Best wishes,

dhm