2/15/16 was up +$0.42 and the model projects that the component on the 2/15/16 kill will be up between +0.15 and +0.45. If that jump would have come on Friday's kill, Dennis Smith's options would possibly given him his money back. There is an old adage, "Don't cry over spilt milk."

Packers made a fair purchase of hogs yesterday for it bing a holiday. The got 99.5% of the moving average daily purchases but they had to pay a little higher to get that many. I think producers are a little behind in their shipments because of the foul weather. They do not appear to be seriously behind and the producers of Index hogs may have actually pulled their hogs forward a little. I'm expecting the index to remain a little firm because of a mild weakness in available index hogs. Total hog numbers seem to be ample.

I have my boat loaded with about as many long Q/V spreads as I want at this price level. Actually I would like to dump a few before I buy more. But sometime you don't get what you want and you have to make do with what you get.

Best wishes,

dhm