MURICO.com Forum

The swine scheduled for delivery report shows - - *PIC*

shows that packers have 76K fewer hogs scheduled today than they had on this date last week. On a year-over-year basis the number scheduled is down -268K for a 12.01% drop. That is somewhat more than the -3% to -6% inferred by the last H&P report.

The table below shows the actual kill since 6/1/14, the kill from 6/1/13 and the projected kill from the last H&P report. As you can see, the kill since 6/1/14 is 515K below projection. If this means that the heavy carcass weights has been achieved by producers slowing their shipments, then it is possible that there could be an extra 515K of heavy hogs coming to market sometime soon.

The swine scheduled for delivery report does not seem to suggest that a significant bulge in the kill rate will occur in front of the QQQs going to cash settlement this week nor did the noon reports today suggest that producers are being aggressive in selling hogs.

This may keep the CME Index component from dropping enough to get the index down the 5.17 needed to close the gap without the QQQs tacking on a few tics. I have bought a few QQQs on this dip and also have a few Q/V spreads.

Farmer Ed and I both talk hogs better than we trade them. At least Farmer Ed can raise them but I can't.

Best wishes,

dhm