8/8/14 was down -$0.82 and the model projects that the CME Index component on the 8/8/14 kill will drop between -0.80 and -1.10. I'm looking at a 6.07 gap with the HEQ4 futures discounted to the Index. We get five more days of data before we arrive at cash settlement. The model shows that it takes a daily drop in component of about -1.45 to get the Index down to where the QQQs are trading.

That seems like quite a drop.

Even so, I will sell QQQs on a rally and look for a dip to scalp out. I had a conflict the distracted my this morning - otherwise I might have sold on the opening strength.

Best wishes,

dhm