8/7/14 was down -$1.26 and the model projects that the component on the 8/7/14 kill will collapse by something like -0.95 to -1.25.
The HEQ4 futures are discounted to the Index by 6.76 with six-days of data coming before we get to cash settlement. That's a lot of "Gap" but a lot of "Gap" can be closed with daily drops in the component of -1.25 day-after-day. In fact, the model shows that would drop the index to 114.66. One thing is for sure, packers are bidding lower and lower for hogs.
I have now probed the QQQs from the short side.
Best wishes,
dhm