was down -0.30 to 55.41. The GGGs have moved down to the point that the are discount to the component by -0.15. Now to see how much lower they both go in lock-step before the rebound starts when the bulls capitulate. If we get limit down today, that may be a sign that the bulls are heading for cover.

The six-day moving average carcass weight firmed to 214.40#. That is still plenty heavy but -1.27# yr/yr and only +1.01# over 2013. Packer hogs are still moving down and only +0.76# over non-packer hogs. It still appears to me that packers have been liquidating their inventory of market hogs. Next week we may learn whether or not they are also liquidating their sow herd. I think the price of hogs is almost low enough to usher in the liquidation phase of the hog cycle. The ZZZ6s are nearing 60.00 and that is low enough to dampen thoughts of expansion but maybe not wholesale liquidation.

Best wishes,

dhm