12/16/15 was down -$0.58 and the model projects that the component on yesterday's kill will drop between -0.25 and -0.55. There is a chance that the pre-holiday kill needs of packers may have been met and a down-trend is in place.

As I watch the 6-day moving average carcass weight decline, especially amongst packer hogs, I find myself wonder, "Have we slipped into the liquidation phase of the hog cycle?"

Generally the sow kill cannot give much of an indication relative to breeding herd liquidation and we don't have good data on the ration of barrow to gilt kill, so we have to default to the quarterly H&P report to give us some guidance and we don't have long to wait for that.

This morning the market has had me busy running to the bank with deposits from getting a bunch of Q/V spreads off my boat and profitably delivered across the pond. Now I am heading back across to see if I can reload my boat. I do have plenty of other spreads, especially the long M/Ns, so my boat is not riding too high in the water.

Best wishes,

dhm