I know you have been expecting China to become a big pork customer and it looks like they are.

I too am awaiting the H&P report. They always have the potential of riling the market and this one is no exception. I'm especially interested in seeing if it gives us any hint on where we are relative to the hog cycle. At one point I had been thinking the kill rate this fall might be high enough to trigger the "Liquidation Phase" of the hog cycle, but that does not appear to be happening in a substantial way although it does appear that packers have been pulling their market hogs forward a bit.

It does not appear this has depressed the market sufficient to trigger the liquidation phase of the hog cycle. At the same time prices may low enough to discourage much expansion. Because of this, I am expecting a more or less "Ho!! Hum!!" hog report.

If Smithfield Foods have inside knowledge about future Chinese imports, I guess it is possible that they could be ramping up production to meet that demand and some expansion will show up. At this point, the declining packer hog carcass weights do not suggest that is happening.

Best wishes,

dhm