shows that packers have 193K more hogs scheduled than they had on this date last week and 51K (-2.28%) fewer hogs than on this date one-year ago. From the H&P report it would appear that the scheduled number should be down something like 4% to 5%.

If this higher than expected number means that producers are becoming motivated sellers because they have fallen behind in their shipments, we could see a russh of heavy hogs coming to market. The model shows that about 474K fewer hogs have been marketed since 6/1/14 than expected based on the last H&P report.

If this means that producers have fallen behind in their shipments, we could see quite a surge in the kill rate with some heavy hogs coming to market.

If this means that the USDA under-estsimated the inventory of market hogs at 6/1/14, we could see packers beging to scramble to see who gets to kill the hogs.

I doubt that I am the only one who is in the dark relative to the supply of market ready and near-market ready hogs about to come to market. If anyone has a "Feel" about the number of hogs that wiill be coming to market, I think it is the packers and there is no way of knowing what they know! The best hint we have is the swine scheduled for delivery report and so far it is NOT suggesting a wild surge in the kill rate between now and 8/18/14.

I j-j-j-juuuusssssst added a long QQQ @ 115.928. I may be getting myself into trouble.

Best wishes,

dhm