MURICO.com Forum

The 6-day moving average carcass weight - - - *PIC*

rose to 213.76#. That is +10.57# year/year. Packer hogs were slightly lighter but non-packer hogs were enough heavier to drive the overall 6-day moving average weight up.

The s wine scheduled for delivery report shows that packers have 193K more hogs scheduled than they had on this date last week. Perhaps some plants were on a scheduled low-kill last week. On a year-over-year basis packers have 52K fewer hogs scheduled than on this date last year. That is a reduction of 2.32% which is not as many fewer as the H&P report would seem to suggest.

I have a loop in my hog model that projects the kill rate from the H&P report. The table below shows the projected kill since 6/1/14 compared to the actual kill. The low kill last week bumped the short fall up to 474,016 hogs. If the H&P report was fairly accurate, then it is possible that producers have nearly a half-million hogs backed-up in their barns lounging around in their barns getting heavier.

That's enough hogs to put a little downward pressure on the CME Index if they make a mad dash to get out of producers' barns.

I didn't like the looks of the fundamentals when the market opened this morning so I took occasion to sell the few QQQs I had. I have bought a few in the 117.00 range and if given the opportunity, I will scalp in and out a little.

Best wishes,

dhm