11/16/15 was down -0.55 to 56.14. The ZZZs are trading discount to the component by just -1.54 and on the recent spike it closed to -0.74. Traders are going to be watching the component and it will drive the ZZZs from now until cash settlement I think.

The six-day moving average carcass weight tumbled to 214.27# this morning. That is -1.20# yr/yr. It was dragged down by packer hogs giving up-0.71#. Maybe producers have been hurrying some of their hogs to market as they have seen the market collapsing. Sometimes action like that cut the available supply of market ready hogs and then there will be a little price re-bound.

Ka!! Ching!! Ka!! Ching!! The Z/G spread did reverse and I un-loaded my boat a little and made a trip to the bank. i find that the front month spread will often give me a round-tripper in one day. On the deferred spreads they will sometimes lounge around for two to three months before they make the move I am looking for. I dare ride with a spread like that but would not have the intestinal fortitude to do that with an outright.

I made quite a few scalping trades this morning but it looks like I was stopped out often enough to cancel out any profits.

Best wishes,

dhm