11/16/15 was down a measly -$0.03. It is "Feeling" like we may be getting near the bottom of this down-trend, but as Long Bear often said, "In the hog market you can always expect the unexpected."

The model projects that the component on yesterday's kill will drop between -0.45 and -0.75. Packers still have an inventory of hogs they have purchased at a lower price to be run through their plants and this is going to keep the component weak for probably another day or two even if packers now begin to bid higher.

The ZZZs are now trading discount to the component by -2.76. That is narrow enough for no problem closing it before the ZZZs go to cash settlement.

Limit down yesterday and heading for limit up today makes it really stressful on the emotions of the hedger.

I just sold a pair of the Z/G spreads at -1.30. Now to see if there is a nice reversal like there was yesterday or whether I get warped.

Best wishes,

dhm