11/13/15 is down $0.94 and the model projects that the CME Lean Hog Index component on the 11/13/15 kill will be down between -0.95 and -1.25. With these lower bids, packers were able to make a very large purchase at 139.2% of the moving average daily purchases.

With the 6-day moving average carcass weight continuing to climb and now being above 214.14#, it appears that not only do producers have a more than ample supply of hogs but they have now become quite willing sellers of those hogs. At the same time, the consumer is not stepping up and carrying-off the pork. On Friday the cutouts collapsed by -2.81. That is going to take away packers ability to bump their prices higher.

It would nice to be short a few ZZZs. Well I am short two but they are both spread. This may benefit my margin a little but no great windfall and I have to keep in mind that some of the "Big Boys" may gun the ZZZs higher in an attempt to fleece some of the hedgers who are not prepared for a bounce. So I want to have enough margin reserve to "Sell" in the event we get a head-rolling, gunning of stops all the way to limit up.

Best wishes,

dhm