8/1/14 kill was down -0.62 to 124.73 so I now see that we have a gap between the index and the QQQs of 6.53 with nine more days of data to get us to the cash settlement index. In 2009 the index dropped by 6.54 from this date to cash settlement so we know it can happen but it usually doesn't. Actually on average the index has gone up by 0.19 from now to cash settlement.

My bias is that we will not see a drop like six or seven buck this year but I'm reluctant to bet the farm on that hunch.

Best wishes,

dhm