11/6/15 was down -$1.41 and the model projects that the component on the 11/6/15 kill will drop between -1.40 and -1.70. This downtrend is turning out to be a real blistering for non-hedged producers and the well hedged producers are going to be just fine!

Packers made a solid purchase of hogs on Friday at 122.5% of the moving average daily purchases and it was especially the index hogs where they REALLY loaded up! It might have been that some of the producers of Index hogs saw an opportunity to sell hogs and lift hedges to lock in profits.

Bellies are being a real drag on the cutout values. They are down more than 30% in a little more than two weeks. That is some hair cut!

The ZZZs are trading discount to the component by nearly nine points and that may be closed somewhat when the 201 report comes out. The way packers are cutting their bids, that "Gap" may not be too wide.

I loaded my boat with a bunch of spreads on Friday. It would be nice to be able to make a trip or two to the bank today but it is doubtful it will happen.

Best wishes,

dhm