10/28/15 was really late today because packers were slow getting their information to the USDA. Anyway, it was down -0.58 to 71.83 which is very much in line with that the model projected. The ZZZs settled today at a discount of 11.96 to the component. From the afternoon reports the model is projecting that the Purchase Index for today will be UP +$0.06 but the CME Component on today's kill will be down between -0.15 and -0.45 because packers still have quite an inventory of cheaply purchased hogs.

The six-day moving average carcass came in at 213.08#. That is -2.00# year over year. Packer hogs are running +3.49# heavier than non-packer hogs. Obviously packers are not afraid of heavy hogs.

Today I was able to move a few spreads in and out of my accounts. I have capitulated on being long this market. Fortunately I was not very long so it did only minor damage. ITZ! Tell your hedgers that they are going to have to find someone else's pockets to pick now.

Best wishes,

dhm