likes to happen the first 10 days of Nov but we may not see Dec hogs get back above the 66.35 weekly sell signal until thanksgiving or the 2 weeks of expiration trade. It could even have trouble getting above the daily chart sell signal @ 65.20. I thought I could smell this coming with the general perception from cyber space turning bullish the last 2 weeks, after 2 months of bearish bias the whole time the hog market was marching higher. The market needs to clean out the trainload of the bull party. Then start the bearish perception again, to help Dec jumpstart the north bound again. That process of loading the south bound, should set up a nice $10 rally for Dec hogs at some point in time.

My hedgers are singing me praises for making them wait for the 67-68 hedge targets but in the same breath are patting themselves on the back for being so smart. Maybe they are the smart ones, since I was thinking they would be screaming for my head when Dec broke through 70.00. That may or may not happen but I can still make that case if it does not fall below 61.00. I started talking to my hedgers about taking some profits @ 61.60 my main downside target and the Oct contract Aug low. They want nothing to do with it, since they have started calculating how rich their hedges are going to make them when it takes out the contract low at 57.05. I just don't think that happens but maybe this time is different. Dec likes to mimic what Oct does by retesting or a small break below Oct's Aug low and then coming back up to the upper end of its range. Sometimes Dec hogs will also match Oct's expiration price and has a few times gone higher. I still believe the 50% retracement target of 69.15 will get the kiss it calls for.