MURICO.com Forum

The CME Component on the - - -

7/30/14 kill was down -1.06 to 126.29. As I look at my screen I see that the QQQs are discounted to the Index by 7.22 with eleven more days of data to come in to give us the cash settlement index. Surely the Index can fall enough to close that gap because it fell 8.62 from this date until cash settlement in 2009.

But the question is, "Will it?"

Other than the huge drop the QQQs made in 2009 because of the H2N2 virus being inappropriately labeled "Swine Flu", the most the index has dropped from this date to cash settlement was -3.70 in 2012. This makes me think that traders may have driven the QQQs too low by a point or two unless producers have fallen so far behind in their shipments that we are now going to see a rush of heavies hit the market.

The six-day moving average carcass weight did show some strength today moving up to 213.68# for a gain slightly greater than 1/3#. Both packer and non-packer hogs were heavier. This may represent fast growth of hogs during this cool weather period or maybe producers have fallen behind in their shipments. Packers have been killing firm numbers of their own hogs.

I'm not very bullish the QQQs but I do have a few longs to test the market.

Best wishes,

dhm