9/18/15 was up -$0.31 and the model projects the component on Friday's kill will somewhere in the range of -0.05 to +0.25. It may be up a little but not by very much. It appears that packers tried all morning to buy hogs cheaper but by the end of the day Friday they sweetened their bids enough to make a solid purchase at 107.9% of the moving average purchases.

Hogs are continuing to come to market at heavy weights. Friday the 6-day moving average carcass weight moved up to 210.37# with most of the gain being heavier non-packer hogs. I have resigned myself to the fact that packers are going to keep wanting heavier hogs because of the efficiency they gain from killing heavier animals.

Cutouts firmed a bit on Friday and packers' margins are not too bad. There seems to be little reason for packers to cut their bids. The VVVs are trading just about at the index. The uptrend we are seeing makes me think the index will gain enough by cash settlement to push the VVVs up another point or two but it may drop a couple of points first.

This uncertainty is the thing that keeps traders coming back to match with each other.

I'm waiting for the V/Z spread to make a significant move upward so I can sell again but I need to be careful and not swamp my boat.

Best wishes,

dhm