9/10/15 was down -$0.59 and the model projects that the CME Lean Hog Index component on the 9/10/15 kill will be down between -0.50 to -0.80. As expected, the down trend is continuing and I expect it will for another week or so. There is a strong historical pattern of weakness in the Index following the Labor Day holiday.

The VVVs are now discounted to the Index by 5.10 and that "Gap" will close by 10-14-15.

The question is, "How will it close?"

My bias is that a portion of that "Gap" will be closed by the VVVs showing a little strength but I don't have any data to support that bias other than the fact that historically there tends to be a little strength in the VVVs following the "Trough" that occurs following the post-Labor Day sell-off.

So -

I bought a pair of VVVs this morning when they dipped on the opening.

Let me hasten to say that when I get a directional balance, I am generally a good fade.

Best wishes,

dhm