9/9/15 was DOWN -$0.86. Packers are have been taking quite a bit off their bids lately and it has been showing up as a down trend in the Index. The model projects that the component on the 9/9/15 kill will be down between -0.55 and -0.85 and that is a follow up to the drop of -1.22 the component suffered yesterday.

Even with their lower bid prices, packers were able to make a solid purchase at 109.4% of the moving average daily purchases. This has me thinking that producers are quite willing sellers. I know I would be if I were a producer. The six-day moving average carcass weight has been holding quite steady for the past week. I think this suggests that producers have a sizeable inventory of market ready and near market ready hogs.

Today I am ready to add to my short V/Z spread position if there is a bounce. If the spread dips, I still have plenty of shorts to cover.

The hog market is rather quiet today and when that happens, it is hard for me to get a good scalping set-up. I expect anytime for something to happen and the "Big Boys" will take-off running stops and we will see some lively action.

Best wishes,

dhm