9/8/15 was DOWN -1.22 to 73.25. ITZ talks about sucker punches, well, my model received a "Sucker Punch" on its projected component change. At least it was pointing us in the correct direction and that it would be a fair-sized drop. I suspect this down trend might run for another week before we get to the bottom of the trough then there is generally a bounce that will last until the VVVs go to cash settlement. At this point I have my eye on something around 70.00 for the cash settlement but it is still too early for the model to produce a projected cash settlement.

I climbed onto a long scalping trade at 68.75. So far it is looking like I pulled the trigger too soon.

Best wishes,

dhm