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The final Purchase Index for - - -

9/4/15 was down -$0.76 and the model projects that the component on yesterday's kill will decline by something in the range of -0.35 to -0.65. The index has entered into that fall decline. The futures traders think down trend will continue until the index has coughed up another seven points or more.

They just might be right.

And on the other hand, "They" might be wrong. "They" often are wrong and the market has to adjust to their wrong perception.

I don't know whether they are right or wrong so I am flat the VVVs. I do believe the ZZZs are priced too low relative to the VVVs so I have sold some of the V/Z spreads. I may be wrong and will end up buying them back at a loss.

Or I may be right and will be able to buy them back at a profit. It does not look like today will be that moment of truth when I will be making a decision.

I see the stock market is being pummeled again today. The Labor Department says the unemployment rate has now declined to 5.1% and 173,000 new jobs were added in August. The trade was looking for 200,000 new jobs. And I wonder if the Fed will go ahead with their long indicated idea of tightening interest rates at the next meeting in September. Looking at the price of T-Bonds, my read is that "The Market" is not so sure that they will.

Best wishes,

dhm

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