9/1/15 was down -$0.43 and the model projects that the component on yesterday's kill will be down between -0.25 and -0.55. There seems to be a down trend running on the index for the last ten-days. If cutouts continue to hold up well, this down trend may be coming to an end. On the other hand if the cutout firmness is because of the holiday demand surge, we may get the usual mid-September weakness in the index.

This is that time of the year when hog prices jump around quite a bit.

And when there is weakness, it is often driven by rising supply as the larger spring farrowings start coming to market. The last H&P report seemed to indicate that we will see more supply this year than we saw last year. Actually we are seeing a bit more supply than I thought we would see based on the report.

With the prospects of the component on yesterday's kill falling away and the VVVs moving higher this morning, there is a chance that this "Pop" won't stick so I sold a pair of VVVs.

Best wishes,

dhm