8/31/15 was down -0.46 to 76.98. The model nailed it today! The "Gap" is now -9.26 with over a month to get to cash settlement and an all important H&P report to be released later this month.

The 6-day moving average carcass weight keeps right on drifting lower which is the usual pattern for this time of the year. It now stands at 208.82#. That is -3.02# year/year. The weight of packer hogs was steady but non-packer hogs dropped about a third of a pound. Packers persist in bringing their hogs to market at about 3.0# heavier than the non-packer hogs. I think this may mean that packers have expanded more than the non-packers but I can't validate that for sure.

Or maybe I can.

I just checked and one-year ago the 5-day moving average percentage of packer hogs in the kill mix was 30.6% and yesterday it was 32.8%. Last year I was thinking that packers suffered greater PED pig losses than non-packers and maybe packers responded by retaining more gilts and now we are seeing the results of that retention with more, heavier packer hogs.

Scalping the V/Z spreads has worked a little for me today. Have made quite a few scalping trades in the VVVs but have had just about as many losers as winners. That happens some days.

My bias is still mildly bearish but not enough so to take the short risk and hold it on the VVVs.

Best wishes,

dhm