8/27/15 was down -0.53 to 78.01. That was a bit sharper drop than the model projected but not a huge miss. That puts the ''GAP" at -12.00. I believe traders are correct is speculating that the index is headed lower. It generally does this time of the year.

The six-day moving average carcass weight drifted lower to 208.96#. That is -2.96# yr/yr and +5.47# over the 2013 level. Producers seem to be keeping quite current in their shipments. That is a very good idea since there is a strong probability that the the usual fall down-turn will occur again this year. That does not mean that the VVVs are headed much lower. Traders have already prices this drop into the VVV and we may see the VVVs tack on five or six points by the time we get to cash settlement. Chances are, though, that when the Index hits its trough in mid-September that traders will take even more off the VVVs and then they will rally as we get to cash settlement.

A couple of short G/J spreads hit my profit point this morning and have been able to pull off some VVV scalpers. I still have a couple of long VVVs working and the market seems to be trying to accommodate me and let me take them to the bank.

Best wishes,

dhm