8/26/15 was down -$0.21 and the model projects that the CME Lean Hog Index component on the 8/26/15 kill will change in the range of something like +0.05 to -0.25. The index is NOT showing much of a trend. One day packers need hogs and they bid higher and after a day or so they seem to have hogs and they bid lower. Historically there is a powerful tendency for the Index to dip five to ten points following the Labor Day holiday.

But it doesn't always happen.

In 2009 it actually gained two and a half points.

This year, though, traders are betting the index will post a ten point or more pull back and based on the historical data, that would appear to be an appropriate bet.

Dewey seems to think China might come into the pork market and if each Chinese consumer were to gobble up an extra slice of bacon a week, that would make a dent in our supply. Until then, there is a good chance that usual fall decline in the index will take place.

Best wishes,

dhm