8/21/15 WAS down -$0.04 and the model projects that the CME Lean Hog Index component on the 8/21/15 kill will change in the range of +0.05 to -0.25 which is just a mild change with the probability being that it will show just a tad of weakness.

Packers made a solid purchase on Friday at 112.5% of the moving average daily purchases. With their bids being mostly steady, this suggests to me that producers have an ample supply of hogs and they are quite willing to sell and they are doing so as quickly as they can and this is manifest by mildly declining 6-day moving average carcass weights. So far producers have fairly good margins and cutouts were up mildly on Friday.

The stock market is in a free-fall this morning and it looks like the problems there may spill over to the hog market.

I'm flat the VVVs and have just a few spreads in place. Will wait and let the market declare itself.

Best wishes,

dhm