MURICO.com Forum

Re: DH, my bullish bias is-----

more of a controlled bias, since Oct does not have a tendency to go ballistic at times like Aug can do. Oct hogs do have a SOLID track record since 2009 of beating a dead dog too long.

2009 a $10 rally off of the Aug low
2010 a $6.50 rally in Sept
2011 a $11.95 rally
2012 a $12 rally
2013 a $10 rally
2014 a $16 rally but the volatility was way higher last year, so that extra $6 was due to that.

My guess is, expecting a 7-10 dollar rally off of the Aug low of 62.25 is very probable unless 62.25 is taken out, which would trigger a major sell signal. A daily close below 63.65 would trigger a minor sell signal that would force me into my bear suit expecting the 62.25 sell signal to be triggered. I expect 1 more retest of the minor buy signal area to see if 65.00 is proven support. That may or may not happen. By Sept 1st, if cash does not take a big setback, Oct hogs will be ready to try and add another $5 extension higher.

It looks to me like we may get another round of bull spreading buy Oct/sell Dec into late Sept. After Oct 1st, Dec usually likes to FALL back down and retest or take out the Oct lows of Aug. At some point I do want to be a seller of Dec and advising my hedgers on that thought. If the hog numbers are accurate and remain that way-----the preferred seasonal low will come in during the Nov time frame, with a Time and Price squaring target between 57-61.

Don't forget that China will probably be waiting for that opportunity to buy some pork.
All this could be one of my hallucinations but I have no other choice than to treat it as reality until damage control tells me it is a hallucination. That's what damage control is for----to separate FACT from MENTAL FICTION.

Messages In This Thread

The CME component on the kill for - - -
Re: DH, I'm back to 1 day at a time
Interesting, ITZ. You are becoming less - - -
Re: DH, my bullish bias is-----
One thing is for certain, ITZ, there is - - -
Re: The CME component on the kill for - - -
Good Morning, Dewey. I have read your post a - -