7/28/14 kill came in right on projection of down 0.96. That puts the component on yesterday's kill at 128.47. This morning's sell-off in the QQQs has kept them discounted to the Index by 6.85. On average over the past ten-years from this date to cash-settlement the index gained 0.30.
But this is not an average year.
This is a highly emotionally-charged year filled with more than the usual amount of uncertainty due to the PED virus problem.
Even so, my bias is that it is going to be a tall order for the Index to cough up 6.85 in the next 12-days.
The 6-day moving average carcass weight dropped to 213.27# today and it was the packer hogs that tumbled the most giving up nearly 3/4#. With weather being fairly cool for this time of the year, I don't think this drop in carcass weight was due to slow hog finishing. I may be wrong but I'm suspecting producers are moving rapidly to get current in their shipments and are hurrying hogs out their barn doors.
Scalping from the long side is going well today. I just banked the next batch and am now in the chase to buy again.
Best wishes,
dhm