projects that the Purchase Index for today will be down -$0.36 and the change in the CME Lean Hog Index component will change in the range of +0.10 to -0.20. The numbers projected from the noon reports are not very reliable but they are NOT suggesting that packers are out beating the bushes to get hogs at any price. Selling a boat load of QQQs early this morning seems to be a reasonable risk.

The Hog Pricing Model is a more effective trading tool when the futures get to be short-term and the QQQs are really super-short term now.

Looking at big dip that the VVVs just made, it looks like some big boys were running stops big time. I hope you didn't catch a sucker fish on that one, ITZ. I had a nice trend line reversal signal on that one but was busy working on spreads and missed it. I have a friend who says, "You can't take every bus that comes down the street."

And he's right.

In this business you don't need to take every trading set-up. With the leverage that is involved, just occasionally being right can result in favorable results.

Best wishes,

dhm