8/6/15 was down -$0.42 and the model projects that the component on yesterday's kill will change something like +0.05 to -0.25. In other words, not a great deal of change but more likely down a little rather than up a little. It is difficult to project which batch of hogs packers have purchased over the past 14-days that they killed yesterday. Generally the model does a fairly good job of sorting it out, though.

Packers made only a fair purchase yesterday - 83.4% of the moving average daily purchases. Maybe they have nearly met their slaughter needs for the Labor Day demand surge and are now going to be bidding lower. I have observed over the years that the Labor Day surge is not nearly as strong as the Independence Day surge and it falls way below the robustness that we see for Memorial Day.

I hit it lucky this morning. I had an order working to buy a QQQ pig at 77.375 and it filled on the early running of stops. It is now M.I.F. and I'm short from 78.25. My feeling is that today is going to be a rather quiet day in the hog market.

Best wishes,

dhm