8/4/15 was down -$0.17 and the model projects that CME LEAN HOG INDEX component on the 8/4/15 kill will change in the range of +0.05 to -0.25. That's probably a touch of strength but could show a little weakness depending upon which batch of hogs packers opted to kill yesterday.

It still appears that packers are hurrying a bunch of their hogs through the packing plants and it may be in anticipation of weaker prices once we get the retailers Labor Day needs met. Everybody and his cousin knows that the CME Index is going to decline as we move into the high fall killing season. That is why the QQQs are trading premium to the VVVs by more that 13 points and more than 18 points over the ZZZs.

Even though we all know the index is headed lower, we don't know when it heads lower and how much lower it will actually get. It is this uncertainty that give traders the "Jitters" and has then shooting at ghosts they can't see in the dark. That's why the Q/V spread crashed by more than two point intra-day yesterday. I had emptied my boat of the Q/V spreads and watched it fall. Bought one at 13.10 and may buy again at 10.75. ITZ says a ten point spread is plenty.

Packers' purchases were not too strong yesterday at 92.0% of the moving average daily purchases. It is going to be interesting to see if packers continued to run their hogs through the packing plants at a rapid clip yesterday. Packers are no dummies - they can't be and stay in this business - and they will do what it takes to survive and sometimes even thrive. It appears to me that their margins are quite good right now. I guess that gives them a little elbow room to bid a bit higher but only if they have to to bring in the hogs.

Currently hogs appear to be in ample supply.

Best wishes,

dhm