the bears will have one hangover they will regret. I've noticed over the years every major move begins with talk, at the time a trend has convinced everyone, that trend cannot change because the fundamentals have not changed. This is where the technicals play there part being the leading indicator. The futures market thinks out into future possibilities once the pattern setup is in place that dictates a better risk reward ratio to trade a reversal of trend. We've had the reversal, now the talk for the logical reason for why that reversal happened.

Once again the human mind is addicted to logic, so logical guesses start to be presented. The longer the rumors and guesses stick around, the psychological fear factor sets in to bring more short covering buys or self preservation by getting off the bear train. The logic gets louder (not validated but more believable) if support areas hold, the doors to a new party(a bull party) starts to attract a following. Lack of confirmation makes fishing good because both sides are jumping at shadows and having daily anxiety attacks which creates a sideways movement in a 3-4 dollar range. This is what I see about to set in for next week as the market waits for some sort of confirmation for a logical reason to be $10 higher than it was 2 weeks ago, when the bear party had all of the attention with a crowd still begging to get in.

I had a few guys very angry at me for advising them to stay away from that party because I thought there was a very good chance it was almost over. I got LUCKY on that advise, I have had it backfire a few times, as it did in June. My hedgers did catch the drop as it went below 80.00 but then I made the mistake of guessing 75.00 was support. It really was, but for 2 weeks I was called every name in the book along with a few new ones. Now those same guys are happy campers, but the funny thing(actually it's very frustrating) is they want to take all the credit for not getting short again at 75.00. Just goes with the territory of my responsibilities and I will continue to do what I think is right for them. Anyway Aug has done all it has to do but if we get confirmation on increased demand--------whoa baby, I think I had better keep my space suit on and fishing lines on both ends of the pond. I don't mind sideways cause that makes the fishing very productive.