7/27/15 was down -$0.22 and the model projects that the CME Lean Hog Index component on yesterday's kill will drop between -0.15 and -0.45. The QQQs are trading discount to the component by -1.05. Looking at the strength of the down trend, that may not be enough of a discount. Additionally it is worth noting that the kill rate is firm, carcass weights are well above the 2013 level and cut outs are not high enough to make packers wildly anxious to throw a lot of money at hogs.a

So I got brave and sold a QQQ this morning. Generally when I get a directional bias, it is a good idea to do the opposite. I guess that means it is now "BUY! Buy!!" time.

Best wishes,

dhm