was watching the kill rate and it appeared that perhaps the number of hogs got over-counted in the last H&P report. That no longer appears to be the case. The kill rate is every bit as strong as the USDA projected and maybe even a bit stronger. If the pigs per litter firms and producers are holding a few gilts back and PED does not resurface, it may turn out that the expansion phase of the hog cycle is still in tact.

That could lead to a bumper kill this fall/winter that could head us into the liquidation phase of the hog cycle. All this uncertainty should create enough volatility to make trading interesting, especially for you, ITZ, with your fishing lines.

This was just a so-so week for me but I am having quite a good month. More and more I am gravitating to spread trading and this week I had un-loaded my boat after a very nice run with the long Q/V spread. I have been doing quite a bit of scalping while I wait for the next good spread set-up to surface.

Best wishes,

dhm