with the numbers from yesterdays USDA June meat production report that showed June hog slaughter only down 1% from 2013 and the heavy hogs gave total pounds up 3% from 2013. I don't put a lot of faith in USDA fuzzy math but it has made me question my technical view point that Oct hogs should/will hold 105 support and make a run back up to the contract high by Oct 1st. A worried producer called me yesterday to tell me heavy, heavy hogs were having a heavy flow into his packing plant. Now I'm confronted with the problem of over thinking my trading plan. I need to stop reading and just trade what momentum dictates.

At the moment momentum on Oct hogs is down as long as it remains below 110.00. Will be neutral on a knee jerk back to 112-113. A positive reversal occurs with a break above 113.67. Once again the hog market has the addicted $5 range in place for the next front month. Sideways between 107-112 can give an upside extension up to 117 or a downside extension to 102 support. I do believe Oct will trade both ends of this range before it expires. I just can't be convicted on which end happens first. This leaves me with the thought that if Aug can find an expiration rally it will pull Oct back up to the 112 resistance area that probably should be sold. I can make the same case for the 110 gap resistance. Who in their right mind would consider a long Oct this time of year. That tells me what many have often suspected about me-----------I have lost my mind since I'm entertaining the thought of buying Oct hogs with the right setup at this 106-107 potential support area. I'm cursed with being an addictive contrarian.