mine has been more than frustrating. It seems I'm developing a talent for damage control hits. The frustrating part is dealing with the thought that the UP momentum I see building is all a series of hallucinations. To top it off, my producers are screaming at me to get some hedges on. When I tell them, go with a packer contract, so if I'm correct about a launch to 79.00 to tag up with where July was trading they can retain ownership on the board. That has gotten very little interest. I've been down this road too many times, when producers were emotionally chasing, begging hedges. It has always ended with anger towards me and the markets.

I just can't rec putting a hedge on for anybody with a market in the process of triggering a buy signal. Now if that fails to happen in the next 5 trading days and a sell signal is triggered with a break below 74.20, I have some producer sell stops setting at 74.17. Until that happens, I have to respect the upward momentum in place above 75.00 and trying to attempt triggering a very strong buy signal if it can break and close above 77.27. As long as daily closes remain above 75.00, August hogs are still trying to climb the progression ladder. The current up momentum in place, can end at any time but to believe it has to stop at 76.00 is dangerous unless a person does possess a crystal ball. So I won't have much interest in being short until I get a valid daily close sell signal.

My guesses are 50/50 at best, so I'll continue fishing which has an 80/20 predictability factor and today was one of those that fell in the 20% failure category but my bias allowed me to be more aggressive than usual. Up momentum does not take full control until 76.87 is broken and a daily close above 76.70 triggers a buy signal to be confirmed on a break above 77.27. It's always hard to tell what level will trigger panic among the bears. It does appear the bears have bought into the excessive expansion story, "hook, line, and sinker". They will continue to sell into 78, 79, and 80 which is probably all the higher it can go. It is at those levels that the fundamental story changes unexpectedly and that is when PANIC sets in to move it back up to 84.00 where the unexpected selloff began in late May. The LAUNCH to 84.00 may/may not happen but the setup is in place, the psychology is in place, and the producer is begging to hedge. The hog market plays this theatrical event over and over and over. The $10-$15 surprise-unexpected move is a common occurrence. If not now it will happen later and the producer will be heavily hedged.