7-13-15 was up +0.48 to 80.51. The NNNs are now trading at a discount of 0.51 to the index. The model is projecting a cash settlement index of 80.72 for the NNNs with a range of 80.22 to 81.22. During this expiration cycle my hog pricing model has been a great tool for trading the NNNs. Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't. I was more aggressive in trading the model this time than I have ever been.

I was expecting the spreads to show some action today with hogs on the move but it is not happening. They are mostly all moving in tandem.

The six-day moving average carcass weight dipped to 211.11# this morning. That is -2.17# Yr/Yr and +7.21 over 2013. The weights usually drop this time of the year. Packers have 239K more hogs scheduled than on this date one-year ago. That is up 10.5%. Based on the H&P report, +13% would seem to be the number. It will not surprise me if the USDA revises the number down when we get the next report.

Lost my emotional control and took profits on about a third of the NNNs I had loaded onto my boat. If they dip, I will buy some of them back.

Best wishes,

dhm