7/23/14 kill was down by -1.37. That is somewhat more than projected. Packers came up with a bunch of cheaper hogs. The QQQs have dropped enough to keep them at a discount of 7.92 to the Index.

The six-day moving average carcass weight moved up to 213.42#. That is 10.56# heavier year/year. Cooler than normal weather, cheap feed and a favorable finishing margin is bringing hogs to market at very heavy weights. On a 2.0 million kill week, and extra 10.56# per hog will add more than 21 million pounds of pork, equal to about 104k hogs at last year's carcass weight.

The heavy carcass weights are causing me to suspect that producers are getting a bit behind in their shipments. If the last H&P report was nearly correct, producers may behind in their shipments by as many as 288K. If that many hogs begin a rush to market, packers will probably drop their bids in a hurry.

There was not a rush to market yesterday. The morning reports showed that packers made only a fair purchase yesterday at 86.3% of the moving average daily purchases. So far, these lower bids have not spooked producers into piling extra hogs into their pick-ups and heading to market.

Best wishes,

dhm