7-10-15 was up +$0.18 and the model projects that the CME Lean Hog Index component on the 7/10/15 kill will move up between +0.25 to +0.55. If that projection is fairly close, the "Gap" will have the NNNs discounted to the component by nearly a point with three trading days until we get to cash settlement for the NNNs.

The model is now projecting a cash settlement for the NNNs of 80.15 with a range of 79.65 to 80.65. It has been a while since the model has painted such a bullish cash settlement scenario. Often when the fundamentals give me a fairly strong directional bias the market does just the opposite. That could happen again this time if packers take a bunch off their bids in the next three days. And they surely can and often do do just that.

I carried a boat load of long NNNs over the weekend. The pre-open gives me reason to have ""Hope" that I did the right thing. The closer we get to cash settlement, the more directly the futures get tied to the index and the better tool my hog pricing model becomes. It will be interesting to see if it works out that way for the NNNs.

Best wishes,

dhm