MURICO.com Forum

The final Purchase Index for - - -

7/7/15 was UP +$0.60 AND the model projects that the CME Lean Hog Index component on the 7/7/15 kill will be up between +0.15 and +0.45. So far this week the kill is only +3.69% over the same week last year. What in the world is going on here?

From the H&P report I was thinking that the kill should be something like +13% and the carcass weights are falling. Falling carcass weights this time of the year is really not surprising due to hot weather. Maybe I'm being tricked by the un-seasonally cool weather we are having here in Ohio but my perception is that the growing weather is too bad.

And why are packers bidding so much higher for hogs? They generally don't bid higher because they want to be nice guys. Rather it is what they have to do to bring in the hogs. It is too early to tell but I suppose it is possible that the USDA missed on their hog count but maybe it is just the 180# and up category or maybe this is just the random way that producers are running their hogs to market and the surge in the kill rate is just around the corner.

The model is projecting a cash settlement index for the NNNs of 79.83 with a range of 79.33 to 80.33. I have orders working to buy at 78.85.

Best wishes,

dhm