7/23/14 was down $0.77 and the model projects that the CME Index component for 7/23/14 will shed between -0.50 and -0.80. The drop in the HEQ4 futures has them discounted to the Index by whopping 9.89 with sixteen more days of date to get us to the cash settlement.

In the last ten years the average change in the Index from this date until the expiration of the QQQs has been a gain of 0.79. The maximum the Index has coughed up in the last ten years from this date to the expiration of the QQQs was in 2009 when the index dropped -10.81.

For the Index to get down to the 121.90 I see printed on my screen now for the QQQs, the component will need to drop an average of -0.63 per day from now to expiry.

I believe that is a tall order that may not come to pass!

Best wishes,

dhm