from the afternoon reports on Thursday the model projected that the final Purchase Index will be +1.07! And the CME Index component on the Thursday kill will be in the range of +0.05 to + 0.35. If it turns out that way, this will be the end of the long, long down trend the Index has been on. Even with bidding higher, packers made a weak purchase on Thursday getting just 161K purchase. Usually by noon they will have 230K purchased. Tb be sure, they were probably not wanting a large purchase since they will not be killing much this week end.

But why in the world were they bidding higher if they wanted fewer hogs?

The kill for the week through Thursday was only +3.99% over the same week last year. It is beginning to appear to me that producers have been liquidating significant numbers of market hogs giving us the high kill rate we have seen earlier. This dropped the 6-day moving average carcass weight by nearly three day in June. I don't think it was hot weather slowing the growth rate or at least my perception is that weather has been fairly good for hog gains so far.

I will tell you this, though, if the QQQs collapse relative to the VVVs, I am ready to load my boat again. I made quite a few trips to the bank for the week that was and now have space for some more long G/V spreads.

Good luck on your short trades, Dewey. And luck it often is in this business.

Best wishes and be safe tomorrow,

dhm